EVALUATING LONG-TERM CROPPING PATTERN SHIFTS AND MULTI-SCALE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

Abstract

Climate change, characterized by altered weather patterns, rising temperatures, declining groundwater levels, and variations in wind patterns and atmospheric pressure, represents a major challenge for agricultural sustainability. To assess farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its impacts on cropping systems, a study was conducted in District Dir Lower, a mountainous, rain-fed region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, where subsistence farming is the predominant livelihood.

The findings revealed substantial changes in cropping patterns over time. Wheat remained the dominant crop, cultivated on approximately 90% of the total cultivated area, followed by maize (Zea mays) and rice (Oryza sativa), which occupied 30% and 29% of the cultivated land, respectively. Certain crops, including opium (Papaver somniferum L.), were discontinued due to declining land availability and limited economic benefits. Variations in livestock populations and crop productivity were primarily attributed to the adoption of improved production technologies and adaptive management strategies rather than solely to climatic influences.

The study also identified significant changes in seasonal patterns. The duration of summer has increased to nearly 28 weeks, whereas winter has declined to approximately 8 weeks. Similarly, spring and autumn have been reduced to about 4 and 3.5 weeks, respectively, with some seasonal characteristics becoming increasingly indistinct. The onset of monsoon rainfall has shifted by 4–5 weeks, while winter precipitation has been delayed by 6–7 weeks compared with historical trends. Furthermore, average temperatures have increased by approximately 20%, 27%, 30%, and 27% during winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. Groundwater resources have also declined by 30–40 feet in several locations, particularly in areas with extensive eucalyptus plantations, highlighting increasing pressure on water availability and agricultural resilience